Cherry Pick
AI-Powered Prediction
Market Trading
Four AI signals. One conviction score. Cherry-pick only the highest-probability trades on Polymarket.
How It Works
Four signals. One edge.
Cherry Pick fuses independent AI analysis, whale wallet tracking, live news context, and prediction specialist data into a single conviction score — then only bets when all signals align.
AI Analysis
Analysis Engine independently estimates probabilities for every market, then compares against market price to find edges the crowd is missing.
Whale Tracking
We monitor 100+ whale wallets in real-time. When the smartest money moves, we see it within seconds.
News Context
8 news sources searched in parallel. Breaking context fed to AI before every trade decision — no stale analysis.
Sharp Signals
Track prediction specialists with 65%+ accuracy. Their category expertise weighs into our conviction score.
Signal Fusion Pipeline
Live Signal Cards
Real-time signal evaluation
Every market gets evaluated independently by all four signal sources. Here's what that looks like.
Will Trump sign tariff bill by Q2?
Fed rate cut in March 2026?
BTC above $120k before July?
Ukraine ceasefire before June?
Apple Vision Pro 2 announced?
US recession declared in 2026?
OpenAI GPT-5 released?
Ethereum ETF staking approved?
Will Trump sign tariff bill by Q2?
Fed rate cut in March 2026?
BTC above $120k before July?
Ukraine ceasefire before June?
Apple Vision Pro 2 announced?
US recession declared in 2026?
OpenAI GPT-5 released?
Ethereum ETF staking approved?
Ethereum ETF staking approved?
OpenAI GPT-5 released?
US recession declared in 2026?
Apple Vision Pro 2 announced?
Ukraine ceasefire before June?
BTC above $120k before July?
Fed rate cut in March 2026?
Will Trump sign tariff bill by Q2?
Ethereum ETF staking approved?
OpenAI GPT-5 released?
US recession declared in 2026?
Apple Vision Pro 2 announced?
Ukraine ceasefire before June?
BTC above $120k before July?
Fed rate cut in March 2026?
Will Trump sign tariff bill by Q2?
Strategies
Four strategies, one goal
All four strategies run simultaneously, competing for the best risk-adjusted returns. May the best algorithm win.
Cherry Pick
Signal fusion — the full stack
Whale Shadow
Follow the smartest money
Sharp Edge
Follow category experts
Crypto Market Maker
Quant fair-value divergence
All four strategies run simultaneously — competing for the best risk-adjusted returns.
Quant-Grade Edge Detection
The same mathematical frameworks hedge funds use to extract millions from prediction markets.
LMSR Depth Analysis
Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule analysis checks orderbook liquidity before every trade. In thin markets, a $50 trade can move the price 5% — we detect this and skip illiquid opportunities.
Impact = e^(q/b) / Σe^(qⱼ/b) — where b is liquidity depth
KL Divergence Scanner
Measures statistical distance between related markets. When "Iran ceasefire by March" is priced higher than "Iran ceasefire by April" — that's a mathematical impossibility we can exploit.
D_KL(P‖Q) = Σ Pᵢ · log(Pᵢ/Qᵢ) — divergence > 0.05 = mispricing
Multi-Outcome Arbitrage
In multi-outcome markets (e.g., "Who wins Best Picture?"), all probabilities must sum to 100%. When they don't, buying all outcomes for less than $1 guarantees profit regardless of the result.
Bregman projection: min D_φ(μ‖θ) s.t. Σμᵢ = 1 — finds exact mispricing
Bayesian Signal Updates
Every signal evaluation updates beliefs using Bayesian inference. New evidence (news, whale trades) shifts our probability estimates in real-time, not from scratch.
P(H|E) = P(E|H) · P(H) / P(E) — posterior updates with each signal
Live Performance
Real data, real time
Live stats pulled from our PostgreSQL database every 60 seconds.
Private Beta Phase
Cherry Pick is currently in private beta — validating signals and refining strategy before scaling. The bot learns from every losing trade via an automated postmortem system.
Architecture
Built for production reliability
Not a weekend hack. A production-grade monorepo with 10 background workers processing real-time market data 24/7.
System Architecture
Data Layer
- Polymarket CLOB API
- Whale wallet scanner
- 8 news sources
- Sharp trader index
Processing
- 10 BullMQ workers
- Redis job queue
- Analysis Engine evaluation
- Conviction scoring
Output
- Trade execution
- Postmortem analysis
- Dashboard updates
- Strategy comparison